Thursday, September 29, 2022

Where Ukraine will launch its next attack

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Putin’s aggressor forces are on the defensive in Ukraine: Ukrainian forces have not just crossed the Oskir River. Kyiv also controls some strong bridgeheads in this front section.

The Ukrainian war front continues to move: After the surprisingly large-scale success of the September offensive to liberate the Kharkov region, Ukrainian forces have not only liberated the strategically important city of Kupzhansk, In a few days they secured several crossings of the Oskir River, but at the same time crossed the wider river plain of the Siwerskyi Donets in at least three places.

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The Ukrainian advance in the eastern part of the country is of great importance for the further course of the war. The two river valleys form a natural barrier that runs through Ukraine from north to south and west to east. River valleys create obstacles and bottlenecks for attackers and defenders. Even before the war, there were only a few road connections from Kharkov to the east and from Donbass to the north. A map shows the current military situation in eastern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military bridgehead on the left bank of the Oskir River provides the Ukrainian military with an excellent starting point for further action. From there, Ukrainian attacks threaten the Russian flank in Donbass. According to consistent reports, Ukrainian forces are already on the other side of the Oskir River, at least near Kupyansk. Some Western military experts also believe that Ukrainians may have advanced further north at Dvorichna and further south at Borawa via Oskir.

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Flowing from the Russian border in the north, the Oskir River flows in a wide bar through the partially densely forested hills to the south. Rivers are not always easy to cross. Even before the war there were few road connections from west to east. Individual bridges had already been blown up by the Ukrainians at the start of the war to deter the attacking Russians. Other crossings have fallen victim to fighting over the past few days.

River currents force supply poles and heavy equipment to make major detours. The lower reaches of the Oskir River do not appear to be suitable for pontoon bridge use. A hydroelectric dam dams the river for 60 kilometers from Kupyansk, forming a large lake. Under the dam in Oskil village, the confluence with the Siwerskyi Donets is just a few kilometers away. This trend is clearly easier for both sides to overcome.

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According to reports, large-scale combat operations have taken place in recent days. Ukrainian military units recently managed to recapture several towns across the river near Lyman. Last known to have been used in Russian carpet bombing with incendiary agents. The battle over the town of Lyman itself seems to be ongoing.

The exact course of the line remains unknown, as is the exact military situation on the ground. For obvious reasons, the Kyiv General Staff and the Ukrainian political leadership keep a low profile. Details of Ukraine’s actions can only be derived indirectly from verifiable image and video material and statements from both sides.

It is clear that the Russian army has recently had to accept further retreat.At the turn of the Donbass front, Ukrainian forces managed to advance to the north bank of the Siversky Donets near Bilokholivka. If successful, future Ukrainian advances could target deep inland areas of the Luhansk region.

The partial mobilization announced in Russia is unlikely to affect the military situation in the short term.The Ukrainian side now holds several key positions to continue the September offensive . Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky therefore responded with confidence to the announcement from Moscow: “We will protect Ukraine, we will liberate the country, and most importantly, we will not show weakness.” hmm,” he said.

Source: N-TV

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